Sunday, May 16, 2010

the black swan

suppose earth was destroyed and a few people managed to hop on to a space shuttle designed for sustainable life in space.

suppose if there are 1 bil bacteria(just a rough figure for simplicity sake) living in an enclosed space, and there is 1:1billion chance that a bacteria would mutate to be able to wipe off humankind easily. now can you realise the significance of such a black swan?

a low probability event that has an extremely heavy consequence.

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