I'm falling apart, I'm falling apart
Don't say this won't last forever
You're breaking my heart, you're breaking my heart
Don't tell me that we will never be together
We could be, over and over
We could be, forever
It's not over, it's not over, it's never over
Unless you let it take you
It's not over, it's not over, it's not over
Unless you let it break you
It's not over
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
my loving memories.
Long Post Ahead
except it isn't so sweet.
i have been recently approached by a friend,
who offered me a business opportunity.
Didn't tell me what it was.. until when i reach the company
then i soon realise that its MLM.
i've gt to admit its my first contact with MLM,
and i had totally no clue what it was before this..
only to know that it's something bad.
actually MLM is a very effective advertising tool rather than a business tool. The fact that the information that Company So-and-So is selling this product travels faster and freely among people than when using conventional advertising methods is enough to prove that! It is, however, lacking in the aspect of promoting the product.
after being swayed here and there,
one thing i didnt like wasthe rushing of things.
if i was going to invest a few thousand(that's 50% of my current assets )': ),
then i need time to consider.
true, opportunity only come by once..
but i believe most opportunity lasts at least some time.
so in the end i rejected the offer..
mainly because i feel that MLM is actually using ur frens to earn money.
how does it work?
Person A can have some downlinks aka slaves,
for my case is 3.
every member is a distributor.
every product you help the company to sell you earn points.
your monthly pay = ~10-15% of ur own sales + ~4-8% of (sum of your total points and everyone below you)
to have the 4~8%, you can either start off by slowly selling to get that elevated status, or you can attain it by buying a complete set of products yourself, that is ~2-4k dollars. <- This adds to the total points earned by you and ur uplinks for that month. So its not hard to realise that the faster and more practical way of breaking even(assuming you paid 4k at the start) is to get ur friends to join as ur downlinks. to get back 100% of 4k, you will need - (100 - 15)/4 = ~22, -> at least 22 person under you. Of course ur frens can find other friends too, so makes it easier.
1->3->9->27.
by 3 levels down you should reach.
this makes a disturbing trend..
when u get into this hot soup, you get ur frens to join in order to break even, or even profit. yours friends are in turn made to get into the same soup and to find more friends, while u earn money from this.
it all ends when ur friends and friends' friends'+++ are already member.
when you find urself at the bottom of this tree,
you are theorically a salesman.. while millions of people above you will earn money while doing nothing.
what are the problems for this business tool?
if everyone ie. singapore, joins this company.. everyone is a distributor.. so everyone will buy for themselves.
let price of a product be Y.
for every product a person in the lowest of this tree buys, the company have to pay cuberoot (sgPopulation) x 8% x Y + 15% x Y.
take sgPopulation = 5million,
company has to pay 13.83 times of Y to the members! Charity?
bad reputation of the MLM helps!!
assume ard 30% of the population joins the company..
for every product a person in the lowest of this tree buys, the company have to pay cuberoot (0.30 x sgPopulation) x 8% x Y + 15% x Y.
company has to pay 9.30 times of Y to the members!
assume ard 10% of the population joins the company..
for every product a person in the lowest of this tree buys, the company have to pay cuberoot (0.10 x sgPopulation) x 8% x Y + 15% x Y.
company has to pay 6.50 times of Y to the members!
so for the company, how to at least earn 20% of Y? (assuming 20% is cost price)
100 - 20 = 80% <- max amt of money going back to members. 80 - 15 = 65% <- max amt of money going back to uplinks. 65/8 = ~8.1 <- max number of layers above the seller. for a 9 level mlm, 1+3+9+27+..= (1-3^9)/1-3 (GP) = 9841 people that is 0.19682% of the population!! If you are a company boss which would u choose? 9841 people max of "salesman" which you can only get back 20% of selling price, or infinite number of salesman you can hire, which you can get back 85% of selling price? In addition, what i was showing was a best case scenario where the tree is a full 1-3 tree. what if the people form an overly extended tree, i.e. to say, every people only haf one downlink (which therefore makes it a linear line..) then
In conclusion, (of cos im not the first to find out) my humble opinion is that MLM is just mathematically impossible for the company to profit substantially and even outperform conventional methods of sales. It's a mean and cold method which requires you to make use of friends to gain profit(sounds familiar?) while at the same time forcing them to your same predicament.
please correct me if i have any calculation mistakes!
sidenote: many other aspects are not covered yet, but this is enough to say no to MLM. Like many times in real life, the danger signs are often quite hidden. (there is actually a Long Entry Ahead warning in font colour white at the start of my entry!)
except it isn't so sweet.
i have been recently approached by a friend,
who offered me a business opportunity.
Didn't tell me what it was.. until when i reach the company
then i soon realise that its MLM.
i've gt to admit its my first contact with MLM,
and i had totally no clue what it was before this..
only to know that it's something bad.
actually MLM is a very effective advertising tool rather than a business tool. The fact that the information that Company So-and-So is selling this product travels faster and freely among people than when using conventional advertising methods is enough to prove that! It is, however, lacking in the aspect of promoting the product.
after being swayed here and there,
one thing i didnt like wasthe rushing of things.
if i was going to invest a few thousand(that's 50% of my current assets )': ),
then i need time to consider.
true, opportunity only come by once..
but i believe most opportunity lasts at least some time.
so in the end i rejected the offer..
mainly because i feel that MLM is actually using ur frens to earn money.
how does it work?
Person A can have some downlinks aka slaves,
for my case is 3.
every member is a distributor.
every product you help the company to sell you earn points.
your monthly pay = ~10-15% of ur own sales + ~4-8% of (sum of your total points and everyone below you)
to have the 4~8%, you can either start off by slowly selling to get that elevated status, or you can attain it by buying a complete set of products yourself, that is ~2-4k dollars. <- This adds to the total points earned by you and ur uplinks for that month. So its not hard to realise that the faster and more practical way of breaking even(assuming you paid 4k at the start) is to get ur friends to join as ur downlinks. to get back 100% of 4k, you will need - (100 - 15)/4 = ~22, -> at least 22 person under you. Of course ur frens can find other friends too, so makes it easier.
1->3->9->27.
by 3 levels down you should reach.
this makes a disturbing trend..
when u get into this hot soup, you get ur frens to join in order to break even, or even profit. yours friends are in turn made to get into the same soup and to find more friends, while u earn money from this.
it all ends when ur friends and friends' friends'+++ are already member.
when you find urself at the bottom of this tree,
you are theorically a salesman.. while millions of people above you will earn money while doing nothing.
what are the problems for this business tool?
if everyone ie. singapore, joins this company.. everyone is a distributor.. so everyone will buy for themselves.
let price of a product be Y.
for every product a person in the lowest of this tree buys, the company have to pay cuberoot (sgPopulation) x 8% x Y + 15% x Y.
take sgPopulation = 5million,
company has to pay 13.83 times of Y to the members! Charity?
bad reputation of the MLM helps!!
assume ard 30% of the population joins the company..
for every product a person in the lowest of this tree buys, the company have to pay cuberoot (0.30 x sgPopulation) x 8% x Y + 15% x Y.
company has to pay 9.30 times of Y to the members!
assume ard 10% of the population joins the company..
for every product a person in the lowest of this tree buys, the company have to pay cuberoot (0.10 x sgPopulation) x 8% x Y + 15% x Y.
company has to pay 6.50 times of Y to the members!
so for the company, how to at least earn 20% of Y? (assuming 20% is cost price)
100 - 20 = 80% <- max amt of money going back to members. 80 - 15 = 65% <- max amt of money going back to uplinks. 65/8 = ~8.1 <- max number of layers above the seller. for a 9 level mlm, 1+3+9+27+..= (1-3^9)/1-3 (GP) = 9841 people that is 0.19682% of the population!! If you are a company boss which would u choose? 9841 people max of "salesman" which you can only get back 20% of selling price, or infinite number of salesman you can hire, which you can get back 85% of selling price? In addition, what i was showing was a best case scenario where the tree is a full 1-3 tree. what if the people form an overly extended tree, i.e. to say, every people only haf one downlink (which therefore makes it a linear line..) then
the max no of salesman the company can afford (to earn back 20%) to hire is 1 + 85%/8% = 11.6 --> 11!!!
In conclusion, (of cos im not the first to find out) my humble opinion is that MLM is just mathematically impossible for the company to profit substantially and even outperform conventional methods of sales. It's a mean and cold method which requires you to make use of friends to gain profit(sounds familiar?) while at the same time forcing them to your same predicament.
please correct me if i have any calculation mistakes!
sidenote: many other aspects are not covered yet, but this is enough to say no to MLM. Like many times in real life, the danger signs are often quite hidden. (there is actually a Long Entry Ahead warning in font colour white at the start of my entry!)
Monday, August 18, 2008
"office hours" - quotes included
after watching the national day rally,
i started to consider about my future again..
maybe im more inclined to IT,
which i quite already hate.
i should really consult people on this path that i've chosen.
DO i really want a job that eats 3/4 of your day, 3/4 of your life?
that puts IT in front of my list.
where once the things are set-up, etc facebook,
you just have to count how much you're earning.
that way i can do more meaningful things in life!
like looking after my kids and etc!
at first i tot the PM was going to impose a standard benchmark of 9-4pm work hours
when he mentioned about stress and office hours being too long..
lol but guessed i was wrong.
maybe that's y singapore can remain so competitive.
i started to consider about my future again..
maybe im more inclined to IT,
which i quite already hate.
i should really consult people on this path that i've chosen.
DO i really want a job that eats 3/4 of your day, 3/4 of your life?
that puts IT in front of my list.
where once the things are set-up, etc facebook,
you just have to count how much you're earning.
that way i can do more meaningful things in life!
like looking after my kids and etc!
at first i tot the PM was going to impose a standard benchmark of 9-4pm work hours
when he mentioned about stress and office hours being too long..
lol but guessed i was wrong.
maybe that's y singapore can remain so competitive.
Saturday, August 09, 2008
shine for singapore
have you seen a star,
one that guides you no matter where you are?
It's NATIONAL DAY!!
omg. it seems like eons ago since the last national day celebration at school..
what is ironic is that in the army, all you get is a 15 mins observance parade.
one that made us read the pledge and then go thru a BRIDGED version of national anthem which we are not suppose to sing along with.
what is best about army is the getting out of it.
3 months left baby!
actually its not the things we do inside that's crap,
its the stupid attitude of some people esp some regulars that
have a perception that NSFs are meant to be EXPLOITED.
i happen to read once in a mail that is not related to me.. quote
"currently our dept are lacking in NSFs, therefore there are many paperwork and admin cannot be processed in time"
this only make me feel more angry. i gave up 2 years of my life to help u with paperwork.
i dont know why, but maybe the years of national education has succesfully imbued a sense of loyalty in me, so much so that all along i have planned not to work out of singapore, and also study outside of singapore on a long term.
i love singapore!
have you heard a song,
one that moved you, one that made you sing along?
one that guides you no matter where you are?
It's NATIONAL DAY!!
omg. it seems like eons ago since the last national day celebration at school..
what is ironic is that in the army, all you get is a 15 mins observance parade.
one that made us read the pledge and then go thru a BRIDGED version of national anthem which we are not suppose to sing along with.
what is best about army is the getting out of it.
3 months left baby!
actually its not the things we do inside that's crap,
its the stupid attitude of some people esp some regulars that
have a perception that NSFs are meant to be EXPLOITED.
i happen to read once in a mail that is not related to me.. quote
"currently our dept are lacking in NSFs, therefore there are many paperwork and admin cannot be processed in time"
this only make me feel more angry. i gave up 2 years of my life to help u with paperwork.
i dont know why, but maybe the years of national education has succesfully imbued a sense of loyalty in me, so much so that all along i have planned not to work out of singapore, and also study outside of singapore on a long term.
i love singapore!
have you heard a song,
one that moved you, one that made you sing along?
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